The report by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change finds that Africa's vulnerability to climate change is even more acute than had previously been feared, and estimates that 30 per cent of Africa's coastal infrastructure could be inundated.
Sea levels could rise by 15 to 95 centimetres by the end of the century, resulting in 70 million people being at risk from coastal flooding by 2080. Cities along the coast of southern Africa are at risk, including Cape Town, Maputo and Dar Es-Salaam.
The report does not mention Mozambique's second largest city, Beira - but since parts of Beira are below sea level already, this city too should be regarded as under serious threat.
Whilst cities such as Maputo and Cape Town face the force of the sea, drought is expected to hit farmers elsewhere. The authors of the report predict that grain yields will drop by up to five per cent over the next 80 years.
The report points out that several African regions have climates that are the most variable in the world. The people on the continent are highly reliant on rainfall, with three quarters of the population using groundwater supplies to a greater or lesser extent.
Climate change will have a direct impact on agriculture.
This is particularly true in the 50 per cent of Africa's farmland which lies in arid or semi arid areas.
Small areas will see an improvement in farming conditions - the report puts this at 80,000 square kilometres. However, the climate model predicts that production from 600,000 square kilometres will become severely limited by a lack of rainfall.
Any changes in agricultural production will have a serious effect on the poorest people on the continent, of whom 90 per cent work in agriculture.
Of Africa's 812 million people, it is estimated that seventy per cent work in agriculture. For sub Saharan Africa agriculture accounts for between 20 and 30 per cent of GDP.
The report was published on the eve of a major conference on climate change that will take place in Nairobi over the next two weeks. The conference will be attended by 6,000 delegates from governments and NGOs. High on the agenda is the need for governments to place climate change at the centre of development and sectoral plans, along with better education, forecasting, and early warning systems.
According to Achim Steiner, the Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), "climate change is underway and the international community must respond by offering well targeted assistance to those countries in the front-line which are facing increasing impacts such as extreme droughts and floods and threats to infrastructure from phenomena like rising sea levels".
The need for improved weather forecasting has been highlighted by the head of the World Meteorological Organisation, Michel Jarraud, who points out that "Africa is the largest of all tropical landmasses and, at 30 million square kilometres, is about a fifth of the world's total land area. Yet the climate observing system in Africa is in a far worse and deteriorating state than that of any other continent".
The report estimates that about a quarter of the Global Climate Observing System surface stations in east and southern Africa are not working, with most of the rest needing improvements.
While the conference in Nairobi will look at improving meteorological observations, and working on ways that Africa can adapt to climate change, the critical issue, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, is that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 80 per cent to stabilize the atmosphere.
Africa warmed by 0.7 degrees Centigrade during the 20th Century with 1995 and 1998 being record years. Scientists forecast that by 2100 mean surface temperatures in Africa could increase by two to six degrees Centigrade.
SOURCE: AIM
